Research
What we have measured in the data behind PutWatch, including the measurements that found nothing.
Two of the four pieces below report that an idea did not work. They are here for the same reason the track record publishes its losses: a research note you can only ever agree with is not research.
Measured September 10, 2026
The term structure did not tell us when to sell
We tested whether an inverted volatility curve predicts a put being breached, over twelve years and 55,470 entries. It does not, and the reason is mechanical.
Measured September 9, 2026
A rate without an interval is not a number
Our first backtest printed 35.0% against 31.5% and invited a conclusion it had no standing to support. Here is what went wrong and how we fixed the claim.
Measured September 8, 2026
Three volatility factors are not one factor counted three times
Five separate AI reviewers told us our model triple-counts volatility. We measured the correlations. They were all wrong, and all wrong for the same reason.
Measured August 21, 2026
Delta is already the volatility adjustment
Selling a smaller delta on high-volatility names sounds prudent. Measured across volatility terciles, outcomes are flat — delta has already done that work.
Research and education, not investment advice. No result here is a forecast. See the disclaimer.